Poland’s EP elections latest opinion poll

From the mists of chaos the closer we are to 26 May, it seems there will be the following options to vote in the European elections in Poland. The latest figures have been provided by the Ibris polling institution.

Law and Justice (PiS/ECR)
37.1% and 22 MEPs
Civic Platform (PO/EPP) within a likely coalition:
.Modern (ALDE)
21.8% and 20 MEPs
Spring16.2% and 10 MEPs
Kukiz’154.7% and 0 MEPs

If the ‘big coalition’ of all the traditional centrist forces in the Polish politics (S&D, ALDE, EPP) run together their cumulative result could be very close to the Law and Justice. Another opinion poll published a few days ago suggests that the “European Coalition” could win with 42.1% of the vote against PiS’ 37.6%. Third was Spring with 8.3%. Kukiz’15 was also short of the 5% threshold.

In the above-mentioned table, should the four parties go separately PSL and .Modern would not have MEPs in the next EP and the share of PO and SLD in the Poland’s elected MEPs would drop to 17 (14 and 3, respectively). PiS would increase its share to 25 and Spring would remain at 10.

In another opinion poll CBOS asked what people think about the PiS government three years after. 51% of the polled have positive opinion about the government and 59% agreed that the party has fulfilled its political promises.

Et alors?

The choice gets clearer. The European Parliament election 2019 in Poland will be a vote for the sovereignist Law and Justice and the continuity of a European grand coalition between the EPP-ALDE-S&D. The contestants of the status quo on the one hand is the new (currently gaining momentum) Euro-federalist Spring party and the direct democracy-supporters of Kukiz’15.

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