So you thought PiS won? Wait a moment…
Yes, the ruling party came first to the Sejm with the result similar to the exit poll and the late poll: 43.76%. At least this is the result from 99% precincts. PiS will form a government and rule like they did so far… this is the message of last night.
It is not as simple. The Senate results make things a bit difficult for Law and Justice with their “revolution”. Apparently sticking together (KO+Left+KP) brought a result in which 51 Senators will affiliate with the opposition parties (43 for KO, 2 for the Left, 3 for KP and 3 Independents) and 49 with the ruling block (48 for PiS, 1 Independent).
What does it change? It depends. PiS is known for not liking to share the power. By not controlling the Senate it will not be able to change laws automatically and over night. The Senate is also necessary for confirmations and appointments as well as ruling with referenda. A minimal thing this may mean that the legislative process will be a month long instead of one night.
The next Senate Speaker will be a high profile person; nominally second in the state after the President.
Yet, there is a different development possible. Last year in regional elections in Upper Silesia (Katowice region) the opposition won by one seat. The same happened in Mazovia (Warsaw region). In Upper Silesia the ruling party was able to attract one of the opposition counsellors to switch affiliations. In Mazovia, however, this proved impossible.
Will the new Senate majority hold the ground?